The People’s National Movement (PNM) is leading the race in voter support with just eight days to go before the September 7 general election.
And Prime Minister Kamla Persad- Bissessar has managed to edge Rowley by just one per cent in the choice for prime minister, beating other contenders such as Jack Warner and David Abdulah.
These were the findings of a national poll, conducted by H.H.B. & Associates Ltd for Guardian Media Ltd, which puts the PNM ahead by seven per cent in voter support.
When asked which party they intended to vote for, 37 per cent of respondents said the PNM, while 30 per cent said the PP/UNC. The undecided respondents accounted for 31 per cent, while two per cent said Independent Liberal Party (ILP).
According to ethnicity, 64 per cent of PNM supporters were Afro- Trinidadians, while 88 per cent of the PP/UNC supporters were Indo Trinidadians. For the PNM, 50.8 per cent were male and 49.5 per cent were female. For the PP/UNC, 49.5 per cent were male and 50.5 per cent were female.
As for who will make the best prime minister of T&T, 45 per cent of the respondents said Persad- Bissessar, while 44 per cent said Rowley.
The poll was conducted between August 22 and 28, through the regional corporations in Trinidad. A random sample of 1,000 people was surveyed. The size of the sample drawn from each corporation was proportional to the population in each of the corporations.
The poll reflects the opinions and choices of the population as a whole and not individual constituencies.
Respondents were asked questions about current issues in T&T and eight questions about their demographics. The respondents’ ages were from 18 to over 65.
Sexual misconduct allegations
Q: Have allegations of sexual misconduct made about Dr Rowley and Kamla Persad- Bissessar changed your perception of him and her? In which of the following ways did your perception of him and her change?
Despite the numerous attacks against Rowley and Persad-Bissessar, the respondents indicated that therewas not much of an impact. Only 11 per cent of the respondents said their perception of Rowley changed while 89 per cent said no. The gender of the respondents was 59.5 per cent female and 40.5 per cent male.
Of that 11 per cent, 81.4 per cent said they were less sympathetic towards him than before and 18.6 per cent said they were more sympathetic than before.
The same question was asked of Persad-Bissessar. Similarly, only 13 per cent said the allegations of sexual misconduct had any impact on them. Of that 13 per cent, 88 per cent said they were less sympathetic towards her than before, while 12 per cent said they were more sympathetic towards her than before.
Jack Warner’s allegations
Q: Have allegations made by Jack Warner about Kamla Persad-Bissessar and the PP influenced your perception of the PP Government?
The numerous allegations made by ILP political leader Jack Warner against the PM and her government created more traction than any other of the allegations being bandied about. Just over one in every four (28 per cent) said the allegations made an impact, while 72 per cent said they did not. Of the 28 per cent, 8.1 per cent said they were more sympathetic towards the PP than before, while 91.9 per cent were less sympathetic towards the PP than before.
‘No Rowley Campaign’
Q: Has the recently launched ‘No Rowley Campaign’ influenced if or how you would vote in the upcoming general election?
The poll showed that the ‘No Rowley Campaign’ had little impact on how people will vote. Across party lines—85 per cent PNM said it did not influence them; PP/UNC-90 per cent; ILP-88 per cent; and undecided-95 per cent.
Leaders’ Debate
Q: A debate between the leaders of the main political parties will be of great benefit to our democracy.
The poll stated that the majority of respondents felt a leaders’ debate was beneficial to the country—62 per cent said yes, while 14 per cent were unsure, and 24 per cent did not think it was beneficial.
Forty-four per cent of those polled said Persad-Bissessar never really wanted a genuine political debate, 32 per cent disagreed; while 25 per cent were unsure.
The value of a leaders’ debate was agreed on by all respondents—PNM-61 per cent; PP/UNC-69 per cent and the undecided voters were 60 per cent. The exception was the ILP voters, among whom only 31 per cent agreed the debate would be of benefit, while 38 per cent disagreed.
When asked if Rowley never really wanted a genuine political debate, less respondents answered yes. Thirty-five per cent said yes, 28 per cent were unsure, and 37 per cent said no.
Those PNM voters who disagreed that she never really wanted the debate was 18 per cent, while PP/UNC voters were almost three times more. With respect to Rowley, the situation is reversed. The poll indicates that 26 per cent of PNM voters agreed that he never really wanted the debate, as opposed to the PP/UNC voters which were 50 per cent saying they agreed.
Politics
Q: (a) Even though my MP may not represent me well, I will always vote for him/her because he/she represents the party I support. *Agree strongly * Agree *Unsure *Disagree * Disagree strongly
(b) Even though I may not be satisfied with the political party I support, it is too risky to vote for a different party. *Agree strongly * Agree *Unsure *Disgaree * Disagree strongly
Asked whether they will vote for their MP even though he or she may not represent them well, 71 per cent of the PNM voters said they will vote for the MP because of party; similarly, PP/UNC voters accounted for 73 per cent, saying yes, while 38 per cent of ILP voter said yes.
Those PNM voters who will not vote for MP because of party affiliation were 24 per cent, PP/UNC voters were 25 per cent, and 56 per cent were ILP voters.
The undecided voters which made up 28 per cent said yes, while 58 per cent of the undecided voters said no to voting for a MP because of party affiliation.
The risk of switching party affiliation proved to be high with the PNM and PP/UNC with 66 per cent and 68 per cent, respectively.
Asked if it were too risky to vote for a different party even though they may not be satisfied with the political party they support, 66 per cent of PNM voters said yes, 68 per cent of PP/UNC voters said yes, and 31 per cent of ILP voters said yes.
Those undecided voters who said no accounted for 54 per cent.
COP influence
Q: How influential do you think the COP will be in the outcome of the general election to be held on September 7?
Very influential-two per cent;
Influential-two per cent;
Neutral-13 per cent;
Not very influential-35 per cent;
Not at all influential-29 per cent.
ILP influence
Q: How influential do you think the ILP will be in the outcome of the general election to be held on September 7?
Very influential-0 per cent;
Influential-16 per cent;
Neutral-ten per cent
Not very influential-29 per cent
Not at all very influential-45 per cent.
Media influence
Q: Have the media displayed bias in its coverage of politics in T&T?
(a) Do you trust the media to report the truth?
Media coverage is heavily biased—58 per cent of respondents agreed that the coverage of politics was biased, while 42 per cent disagreed; 67 per cent said they do not trust the media to report the truth.
Q: Do political parties use race to try to gain advantage in the political process?
The poll showed that 77 per cent of respondents believed that political parties use race to gain an advantage in the political process while 23 per cent did not.