Global experts including the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) have projected oil price increases—estimated to reach around US$60 plus—between 2016 and 2017 which could earn T&T an estimated $10 billion in revenue, Finance Minister Colm Imbert has said.
This is in addition to a further $5 billion Government is targetting from enhanced revenue collection mechanisms, making for a total projected revenue of $15 billion by 2017.
Winding up the 2016 budget debate in Parliament yesterday, Imbert, however, warned that if the slump in prices continued, Government would have to look at other “means, fiscal measures and policies” to deal with the situation.
On projections for the oil price over 2015 to 2025, Imbert said the World Bank projected the price would reach approximately US$61 over 2015 and 2016 and US$64 in 2017.
He noted the IMF projected an increase to US$60 in 2016 and US$63 in 2017. The Economic Intelligence Unit also projected a price hike to US$69 in 2016 and US$80 in 2017.
Imbert said the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) also projected an oil price level of US$65 in 2016 and close to US$70 in 2017.
He said assuming world experts were correct T&T could expect an increase in the oil price of around US$65 a barrel which was similar to the projected price for 2015. This price could yield around $10 billion, he added.
Imbert said accounting firm PriceWaterhouseCoopers also estimated that with proper revenue collection, the proposed T&T Revenue Authority, and proper co-ordination, collaboration, and collection including VAT collection, Government would be able to collect some $5 billion in revenue.
Imbert said if the oil price increase occurred and Government obtained the projected $10 billion in revenue, as well as reached its $5 billion revenue collection target, Government should be able to obtain $15 billion by 2017 and would be on the way to securing the continued growth and recovery of T&T.
He said if there was revenue collection reform and efficiency, T&T could be on a sustainable path by 2017. But if it became necessary, the State would have to use means including the last assets of the CL Financial group.
The Finance Committee intends to sit over five days until 8 pm nightly. Up to 6 pm yesterday, MPs were scrutinising national security with 40 more state agencies to be dealt with. (Gail Alexander)