Kevin Baldeosingh
A draft policy document on the Vision 2030 programme touted by Prime Minister Dr Keith Rowley has linked URP and Cepep to crime and corruption. The document, meanwhile, reveals that the Vision 2020 programme under the Patrick Manning administration failed to achieve most of its goals.
Titled “National Development Strategy 2016‒2030,” the Vision 2030 draft prepared by the Ministry of Planning and Development is one of several key policy documents now before Cabinet which have not yet been released to the public.
In respect to crime, the draft notes, “Historically the response of public policy to the inadequate pace of private sector job creation has been to institute ‘make-work’ programmes to provide temporary employment.” The negative effects of these programmes, the draft says, include dependency, entitlement, and labour shortages. “In addition to these effects, these programmes have also been attended by corrupt practices and have been a source of income for persons engaged in criminal activity,” the document admits.
The draft says, “For the last two decades, Trinidad and Tobago has been afflicted by unacceptably high rates of serious crimes, particularly murders. While some of the murders are linked to domestic violence, the majority are related to gang violence which is in turn linked to the movement of drugs and the associated acquisition of firearms.”
Table One shows the murder totals from 1995 to 2015, which began surging upwards in the third year of the Manning regime. In that same year, the budget allocation for URP was increased more than threefold to $300 million. The Community-based Environmental Protection and Enhancement Programme (Cepep) was established by Cabinet in 2002 with an initial allocation of over $378 million.
The draft says, “The crime detection rate showed little change with 16.8 per cent in 2010 and 16 per cent in 2014, but improved slightly to 22 per cent in 2015. However, in spite of the increased detection, less than a quarter of reported crimes were being solved.”
The draft also identified child abuse and domestic violence as key areas of concern. “In terms of the family, the latest available data revealed that the number of child abuse cases declined slightly but remained high at above 4,000 cases, from 4,760 cases during 2007‒2012, to 4,158 cases during 2015‒2016,” the document says. “However, the data on the number of Domestic Violence cases were of greatest concern, as the statistic increased by an alarming 57 per cent from 70,769 cases during 2006-2007 to 125,166 cases during 2013-2014.”
As part of a crime reduction package, the draft proposes new legislation to tackle corruption, including asset forfeiture, whistle blower protection, and Public Procurement and Disposal of Public Property Amendment Bill 2015, as well as increased powers for the Police Complaints Authority. There are also plans to build a state-of-the-art Forensic Science Centre, merge the Anti-Corruption Investigations Bureau and the Financial Investigations Bureau to tackle white-collar crime, and make the Professional Standards Bureau of the T&T Police Service (TTPS) into a semi-autonomous agency.
The draft has not been released to the public. “The document remains in draft form since further national consultations on the recommendations and on the proposed priorities, strategies and key shifts must be discussed and debated. A National Vision 2030 Communications Strategy will be developed to solicit the views of citizens and stakeholder groups,” says the Planning Ministry.
How Vision 2020 failed
In the Foreword to the National Strategic Development Plan document, Planning and Development Minister Camille Robinson-Regis states: “Through the adoption of a comprehensive national development planning framework, the National Development Strategy, Vision 2030, will lay the foundation and pathway for attaining developed country status by the year 2030.”
According to a survey carried out by Market Opinion and Research International (MORI) in 2007, half of the people surveyed felt Vision 2020 would be successful. But, even by that year, the programme had already failed to achieve most of its benchmarks, as shown in Box One. This despite the fact that the Government was already claiming significant progress. And, nine years later, the PNM administration continues to assert that Vision 2020 is a resounding success and only the timeline has to be extended, even though its own statistics belie this claim.
Murders 1995-2015 (TABLE 1)
Year Murders
1995 122
1996 107
1997 101
1998 97
1999 93
2000 120
2001 151
2002 171
2003 229
2004 261
2005 386
2006 371
2007 391
2008 547
2009 506
2010 473
2011 343
2012 383
2013 407
2014 403
2015 420
Source: TTPS
Vision 2020 success rate
Success rate of sample of Vision 2020 projects
AREA TOTAL GOALS ONGOING/PENDING DEADLINE ATTAINED SUCCESS RATE
National Security 87 78 9 10%
Governance 30 26 4 13%
Infrastructure 77 66 11 14%
Health 32 29 3 9%
Source: Draft National Strategic Plan, 2007
This sample indicates that, contrary to Government claims in 2007, the overall success rate of Vision 2020 was a dismal 11 per cent.
Vision 2020 performance
In 2016, the Draft Vision 2030 document states that Vision 2020 had “an implementation rate of approximately 70 per cent in four years”. But the draft’s own statistics show that only 18 per cent of objectives were achieved, and 30 per cent showed no significant progress. In respect to goals like “Effective government,” the achievement rate was a dismal three per cent; for competitive business, 17 per cent; and for developing innovative people, four per cent. (See Box Two.)
Goal Ongoing % Achieved % Failed %
Innovation 54% 4% 42%
Caring Society 48% 31% 21%
Competitive Business 59% 29% 12%
Effective Government 59% 3% 38%
Total 51% 18% 30%
Source: Ministry of Planning