Despite significant disenchantment with the ruling People’s National Movement (PNM), the administration has still managed to take an early lead over the Opposition UNC and other parties for control of the 14 Local Government corporations in the run-up to the November 28 election, according to an ongoing survey conducted by the North American Caribbean Teachers Association (NACTA).
The association said although a large majority of voters were not pleased with PNM governance, they do not view the Opposition UNC, as currently constituted, as a viable alternative at this time.
It added grassroots supporters and activists of the UNC expressed disapproval of some of the prospective (projected) candidates in the Local Government elections and this disapproval combined with perceived party infighting will further erode the UNC’s prospects in the locals.
The findings of the poll showed the PNM was not under threat to lose any of the eight local bodies it now controls and was on course to make gains.
Of the 135 seats up for grabs, the ruling party currently controls 84 seats and it could lose a few seats to the UNC but pick up as many as five based on the latest polling data and at least one borough could change party control.
Nacta said no other party was projected to win any seat or local body but support could change for the two dominant parties depending on candidate selection and the level of their acceptance by activists and voters.
The findings revealed disenchantment with both the PNM and UNC with many respondents clamouring for a strong third political force. Given the current choices, however, voters preferred the PNM over the UNC by a huge margin.
According to the findings of the survey, the PNM leads the UNC 44 per cent to 37 per cent with the mini-parties combined gaining less than three per cent of support. The poll has an error of four per cent, meaning support could vary in either direction.
A large number of voters indicated they will not vote and these non-voters were not included in the polling preference. With five weeks of campaigning now starting, a prospective outcome could change by election day.
The ongoing poll began early this month interviewing 850 voters to reflect the demographics of the voting population.
The poll used face-to-face interviews with a four per cent margin of error suggesting closely fought seats could go either way. The poll was co-ordinated by Dr Vishnu Bisram, a political scientist and newspaper columnist in New York. The projected outcome was based on this and earlier polls conducted in May, June and August that interviewed a further 2,000 voters.