Former head of the National Operations Centre (NOC), Commander Garvin Heerah, is warning that current economic challenges can influence crime trends in the country and he is urging the authorities to revisit the national security agenda and establish a steering committee of experts to address the economic security of T&T.
“In times of economic crisis or non-crisis, economic factors play an important role in the evolution of crime trends,” Heerah told the Sunday Guardian.
He explained that economic changes are often associated with changes in crime, with identifiable peaks during times of crisis. He said there could be as much as a two-fold increase in violent property crimes such as robberies during a period of economic stress and increases in homicide and motor vehicle theft have also been observed.
“These findings are consistent with the criminal motivation theory, which suggests that economic stress may increase the incentive for individuals to engage in illicit behaviours,” said Heerah, who served for more than three decades in the T&T Coast Guard/Defence Force.
He said the pronouncements of former Central Bank governor Jwala Rambarran a few weeks ago and Prime Minister Dr Keith Rowley last Tuesday about decreased or negative economic growth raised the possibility of an increase in unemployment where large numbers of individuals may suffer severe, and perhaps sudden, reductions in income.
This, he warned, could result in larger numbers resorting to illicit solutions for their financial problems.
“While this might appear to be a simple explanation for property crime, stress situations are also the cause of many violent crimes,” he said.
“From a research-based perspective, unemployed persons may become increasingly intolerant and aggressive, especially in their families. Violence among strangers may also increase in situations in which people do not have clear prospects for their future.
“While unemployment figures are often used as a key indicator for analysis of the effect of economic conditions on crime, official unemployment figures alone cannot provide a complete indicator of either the financial crisis itself or levels of population financial stress.”
He said the authorities could not afford to ignore the social impact of an economic downturn.
Citing a UN Office on Drugs and Crime report on Crime and Failing Economies by Steven Malby and Philip Davis, he said, “In addition to loss of employment, the financial crisis may also manifest itself through reduced government social expenditure, increased cost of basic consumer goods, and restrictions on local credit availability. Any or all of these may result in financial stress for individuals and communities, with no change in official unemployment figures.
“Nonetheless, due largely to its availability and comparative simplicity, unemployment has been widely used in the literature as a proxy for economic activity in the investigation of the relationship between economic downturns and criminal events.”
Heerah said to address the security aspect of the economic situation in the country, all of T&T’s law enforcement arms should meet and strategise on methods and mechanisms of crime fighting in anticipation of a possible increase in crime. He said it was also important to gain the confidence and support of citizens, reassuring them that all efforts were being made to ensure a safe and secure environment.
“Clearly, the approaches and practices presently in place will not work in such conditions,” he said. “The perception of safety and security amongst the citizenry is the catalyst for the restoration of a safe and secure Trinidad and Tobago.”