The Government is awaiting information from the Central Statistical Office (CSO)—expected in a few weeks—on the Central Bank governor’s recent statement that T&T is in a recession, Finance Minister Colm Imbert has said.
Last week Central Bank governor Jwala Rambarran said T&T was in a recession and the full-blown effects would be felt from early 2016.
Replying to Opposition questions on that posed by United National Congress (UNC) Senator Wade Mark in the Senate yesterday, Imbert said the official source of determining the situation with the economy was the CSO.
He said the Central Bank was not a source of economic data.
“We’re checking with the CSO to determine any concurrence regarding the Central Bank governor’s statement,” Imbert said.
He noted that in the 2016 Budget he had said the CSO had projected a one per cent growth in the economy for 2015 while the Central Bank had said there was a one per cent decline.
He added that for the last 40 years, through all governments, the authoritative source for economic data was the CSO.
“Consequently it would be premature and precipitous to accept the Central Bank’s statement without checking the CSO first,” he said.
On when the CSO’s information would be obtained, Imbert said one did not rush to conclusions but expected in a few weeks the CSO would give him the “answers I require.”
On Mark’s query about findings arising from the recent visit of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) team to T&T—on the Government’s invitation—Imbert said the visit was an informal one and not an official IMF mission.
He said findings were currently being discussed at the IMF’s head office in Washington, DC, United States. He said it was expected that the IMF would undertake its usual visit in the first half of 2016 for the normal Article IV consultation when talks would be held with all stakeholders.
Imbert said many of the IMF’s findings during the team’s September visit found its way into the 2016 Budget and many of the findings were consistent with Government’s “take” on the state of the economy following the People’s Partnership administration.
Pressed by Mark on the findings, Imbert reiterated various issues concerning the economy which he said were found by the IMF and which confirmed the People’s National Movement (PNM) Government’s suspicions of “PP mismanagement.”
On Mark’s query about declining foreign exchange reserves, Imbert reiterated that the level was US$10.3 billion in September and now stood at US$9.6 billion following the recent TT$500 million injection of funds into the system.
He said T&T had 11 months of import cover. He said the international benchmark was three months’ cover and T&T was therefore above the requirement.
He said the Government was monitoring the situation and the 11 months of cover meant there was “no need for anything precipitous at this time.”